The table below is made from the data used by Dr. Steven F. Freeman, PhD, of the University of Pennsylvania, published by him on the Internet on November 10, 2004, in his paper titled
The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy

Regarding the source of the exit poll data, Dr. Freeman states [quote]:

It comes from exit polls conducted for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the major television networks and the Associated Press, by two respected polling firms, Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, whose founder Warren Mitofsky is credited with having invented the exit poll.... available apparently only because a computer glitch allowed apparently "uncalibrated" (not yet "corrected" to conform to announced vote tallies) to remain on the CNN website until approximately 1:30 AM election night. At that time, CNN substituted data "corrected" to conform to reported tallies.

Dr. Freeman references this to an article in the Washington Post, November 4, 2004, titled 'New Woes Surface in Use of Estimates' by Richard Morin, page A29.

Exit-Poll vs Machine-Tabulated Election Results
In 11 Battleground States
U.S. General Election, November 2, 2004

Battleground State

A
Bush, Predicted by Exit Polls, %

B
Kerry, Predicted by Exit Polls, %

C
Difference according to Exit Polls, %

D
Bush's Ballot Tabulations, %

E
Kerry's Ballot Tabulations, %

F
Difference According to Ballot Tabulations, %

G
Tabulations (F) were this much higher than Exit Polls (C), %

Sample size

Percentage of Counties with Paper Ballots
Colorado
9 votes
 49.9 48.1 Bush 1.8 52 46.8 Bush 5.2 Bush 3.4 2515 11
Florida
27 votes
 49.8 49.7 Bush 0.1 52.1 47.1 Bush 5.0 Bush 4.9 2846 0
Iowa
7 votes
 48.4 49.7 Kerry 1.3 50.1 49.2 Bush 0.9 Bush 2.2 2502 1
Michigan
17 votes
 46.5 51.5 Kerry 5.0 47.8 51.2 Kerry 3.4 Bush 1.6 2452 0
Minnesota
10 votes
 44.5 53.5 Kerry 9.0 47.6 51.1 Kerry 3.5 Bush 5.5 2178 9
Nevada
5 votes
 47.9 49.2 Kerry 1.3 50.5 47.9 Bush 2.6 Bush 3.9 2116 0
New Hampshire
4 votes
 44.1 54.9 Kerry 10.8 49.0 50.3 Kerry 1.3 Bush 9.5 1849 0
New Mexico
5 votes
 47.5 50.1 Kerry 2.6 50.0 48.9 Bush 1.1 Bush 3.7 1951 0
Ohio
20 votes
 47.9 52.1 Kerry 4.2 51.0 48.5 Bush 2.5 Bush 6.7 1963 0
Pennsylvania
21 votes
 45.4 54.1 Kerry 8.7 48.6 50.8 Kerry 2.2 Bush 6.5 1930 0
Wisconsin
10 votes
 48.8 49.2 Kerry 0.4 49.4 49.8 Kerry 0.4 No diff. 2223 29


Comments: According to the Exit Poll Results, Column C is how the election should have turned out (2 states for Bush, 9 states for Kerry, giving Bush 36 electoral votes and Kerry 99 electoral votes). But officially, the election turned out as in Column F (6 states for Bush, 5 states for Kerry, giving Bush 73 electoral votes and Kerry 62 electoral votes).

The Battleground States have traditionally been important because they are a large block of states that are not predictable. The way they vote can, and often does, determine the outcome of U.S. national elections. Thus, candidates "battle" over the votes in these important swing states.

It is seen that the machine tabulations in every battleground state except Wisconsin, showed a large increase for Bush over what the public had declared in the exit polls. Wisconsin is unique in the group, possibly because it has 23 "paper ballot" counties (29% of its total), making it impossible to alter vote counts there, because the public has already witnessed the counts in each local area. Conversely, the other states have almost no paper ballots and all use a variety of voting machines and vote tabulator machines, for which the public is denied the opportunity to observe the counting process (See map of U.S. voting systems) Of the 11 states, only Wisconsin's tabulations were precisely the same as its exit polls. The other battleground states ended up with an average shift of 5.5 percent in Bush's favor.

See video of computer programer Clint Curtis's sworn testimony on vote rigging before a committee of the U.S. House of Representatives

Read the Mystery Pollster explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancy

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