Map of Voting Systems

 

VOTING 2004: Exit Poll Discrepancy
Early in the evening of Election Day 2004, it became clear there was a wide discrepancy between exit polls (which historically have been extremely accurate) and what the tallying machines were showing as the "actual" vote count. Later that night, the TV media companies artificially adjusted their exit poll figures to match the tallying machines' numbers. Then, they hid the original exit poll data. Congress has asked the media companies for the original exit poll figures, but so far, they refuse to reveal them.

Maintained by Lions Grip Traction Pads ™

MAIN MENU

Introduction
About Vote-Counting
News Sources
Exit Poll Discrepancy
Paper Ballots
Groups
Who's Who
Clint Curtis Interview
Questions and Conclusions

Links
Black Box Voting.Org,
Bev Harris's Website


Lynn Landis: Activist for Using Paper Ballots

Illustrated History of Voting Machines

Modern Voting Machines Overview

Myth Breakers - HAVA Misconceptions

Interview w/ Harris

Votergate, The 30 MINUTE MOVIE

ACE Project: How Ballots are Counted

Voter March Group

Buy Bev's Book, Black Box Voting

Bev Harris Interviews Diebold Computer Tech

Voting Machines, Problems with

Leip's Nov. Election Results

Election Night Timeline (Liep's)

Working Assets' Nov. Election Results

Discussion Forum

IEEE Analysis of Electronic Voting

ElectionDataSvcs Inc

Stolen Election 2004, 38 pgs

Stolen Election 2004, brief

Electoral-Vote.com Pollsters Analyses in Micro-Detail

History of the U.S. Electoral College

VotersUnite.Org

Verified Voting.org

NASED Website

NASED Members List



Join the
ElectionWatch2004
discussion at

Counting Votes Electronic voting  machines touch screen optical scan paper ballot punch card election fraud recount centralized central tabulating


Webstuff
New WebSurfer?
Submit a Link


COLOR ME!
 alt=
KIDS! Click here.



  

Trouble?
Counting Votes Electronic voting  machines touch screen optical scan paper ballot punch card election fraud recount centralized central tabulating Get your Car or Truck...UNSTUCK!
With
Lions Grip
Traction Pads
tm

"At 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on Election Day, I checked the sportsbook odds in Las Vegas and via the offshore bookmakers to see the odds as of that moment on the Presidential election. John Kerry was a two-to-one favorite. You can look it up.

"People who have lived in the sports world as I have, bettors in particular, have a feel for what I am about to say about this: these people are extremely scientific in their assessments."
~~~ Jim Lampley, May 10, 2005



Table:
Exit Polls vs Tabulated Votes
in 11 Battleground States





Sources of Information

"The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy"
A Paper by Steven F. Freeman, PhD
University of Pennsylvania
November 10, 2004

An 11-page academic paper with many graphs, in pdf format.
[Quote:] "Most Americans who had listened to radio or surfed the Internet on Election Day this year, sat down to watch election night coverage expecting that John Kerry had been elected President. Exit polls showed him ahead in nearly every battleground state, in many cases by sizable margins. As usually happens in close elections, undecided voters broke heavily toward the challenger, and the Democratic Party, possibly better organized and more committed than ever in their history, generated extraordinary turnout.

"But then in key state after key state, counts were showing very different numbers than the polls predicted; and the differentials were all in the same direction."

He goes on to analyze the data from the 11 "battleground states" that are on at least 2 of 3 main lists: Zogbys, MSNBC, and the Washington Post. Read the Paper.




Exit Polls Demystified (found on Web 8/23/05)

Describes several explanations for The Exit Poll Discrepancy. One such example: perhaps the exit polls were not completely tallied yet when they were removed from TV channels at around 1 AM on Election Night. Our question then becomes, why did the exit polls in every battleground state except one show a discrepancy in Bush's favor? One would expect such incomplete data to have randomness to it, not be skewed to one side. ~~ This is the most comprehensive look at the Exit Poll Discrepancy question found so far.




OilEmpireUS - Exit Polls

Where people used paper ballots, the exit polls accurately predicted the voting outcome, but where people used computer voting machines, the exit polls were off by a factor of many percentage points, all for Bush, this website's graphs seem to show.
Entertaining if you like the harsh negative tone and blasting headlines devoid of complete sentences, irritating if you don't, but an undeniably voluminous combing of the Internet scene for commentary, if not hard facts.






U.C. Berkeley Report on Exit Poll Discrepancies in Florida, 2004

"BERKELEY, CA -- November 18 -- Today the University of California's Berkeley Quantitative Methods Research Team released a statistical study - the sole method available to monitor the accuracy of e-voting - reporting irregularities associated with electronic voting machines may have awarded 130,000-260,000 or more excess votes to President George W. Bush in Florida in the 2004 presidential election."




CalTech / MIT Attempted Rebuttal to Exit Poll Discrepancy Reports (Note: Webpage has been removed from Internet as of August 23, 2005 -- KS)

Young geniuses have a hard time writing plainly. This report is one such time. Maybe it says something, maybe it doesn't, but this author is far from convinced. Especially since no humanly-discernible discussion is given concerning which exit poll data these students used. And neither does the media website they claim to have gotten exit poll data from (www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/index.html).

It is a known public fact that the major TV companies changed their exit poll data as Election Evening wore on, so that their data wasn't so far off from the tallying machines' numbers. They have hidden the original exit poll data. US Rep John Conyers of the House Judiciary Committee has asked for the original data, and has been denied it. These students don't address this issue at all.







Get your CAR or TRUCK ... UNSTUCK !!

with


 
News

The Movement for Hand-Counted-Paper-Ballots News, Lynn Landis, current, 2005

Black Box Voting Website & News, Bev Harris, current, 2005

Ohio Elections Chief Blackwell Makes Improper Fund-Raising Solicitations and Partisan Efforts on Secty of State Letterhead, Associated Press, Jan. 8, 2005

Clint Curtis, Computer Programmer, Interviewed by House Minority Judiciary Committee, THE VIDEO (15 min), bradblogtoo, Dec.18, 2004

"A Day Spent at the...Ohio Recount", Black Box Voting, Dec. 16, 2004



Rep. John Conyers of the House Judiciary Committee: "Ten members of congress, including myself, have written to Governor Taft asking him to either delay, or treat as provisional, the vote of Ohio's presidential electors", US House of Representatives, Dec.13, 2004

Ohio's Election Results are Challenged in State Supreme Court, Dec. 13, 2004

Kerry's and Edwards' Requests for How to Recount Ohio, Dec. 13, 2004

Voting Rights Groups Tragically Ignore Paper Ballot Option, Dec. 11, 2004

Ohio Secty of State Blackwell Locks Down Public Records, Dec. 10, 2004

Former Congressman Jailed in Ohio in Trying to Give Letter to Secty of State Blackwell, Dec. 10, 2004

Kerry/Edwards could still seize the Whitehouse, Dec. 2, 2004

Recount Efforts in the U.S., Kim Zetter at Wired News, thru Nov, 2004

E-Voting News at VerifiedVoting.org, thru Nov, 2004

Latest on the Ohio Re-Count, by Keith Olbermann, MSNBC, Nov. 23, 2004

Berkeley CA statistical analysis of Florida data, Nov. 18, 2004

Recount in Ohio "All but Certain," WorldNet Daily, Nov. 15, 2004

California collects $2.6 million in Diebold suit for faulty voting machines Monterey Herald, Nov 11, 2004

NBC exec calls exit polls "junk,"British Broadcasting Corporation, Nov. 4, 2004

Kerry Won in Ohio, MUST READ, by Greg Palast, TomPaine.com, Nov. 4, 2004

Myriad errors in OH & PA Voting Process, Nov. 3, 2004

California investigates Diebold, Dec. 17, 2003

Will the Election be Stolen? Sept 29, 2003

Seattle Times discusses Bev Harris's findings, Sept 25, 2003

Definitions
assigned votes: the final numbers of votes, as declared by the authorities who count them; the counterpart to assigned votes is projected votes, which are the numbers of votes accumulated through exit polls
Australian ballots: another name for paper ballots in the U.S., system developed in Australia in mid-1800's
balanced: a voting precinct is balanced when the number of voters' signatures (on poll tapes) matches the number of ballots after that precinct's polls close; many, many precincts are not balanced at first, but are brought into balance later as the reasons for the discrepancies are found out
ballot: comes from the same word as "ball"; voting in ancient times was determined by secretly placing a tiny black or white ball into a container; today, ballots are of many types: optical scan, punch card, data punch, and paper; ballotless voting is done by electronic (touch-screen) machines and the older, lever machines that count like a car's odometer; by far the largest form of ballot in use in the US in 2004 is the optical scan ballot ("OS") ballot system
central tabulating software: ballot-counting software installed on a computer at the vote-counting headquarters, usually at county level;it is possible that this vote-tabulating function can be accessed by any computer in the world, and that to do so is not at all complicated, however, an investigation is necessary to learn the extent to which this is possible
central tabulating office: ballot-counting is done here, usually at the Registrar of Voters of any given county (US); a county will be divided into regions called "precincts," which have a voting place centrally located; votes made at the precinct polling place are counted either at the precinct, then sent to the central tabulating office, or sent directly to the central tabulating office where all votes/ballots are counted ("tabulated")
chad: the pieces of paper left in the holes that are supposed to get punched completely out in votomatic and other punch-card voting machines; recent discussion has delineated several specific types of chads, such as "hanging chad," "pregnant chad," and the like, giving much cause for election-time mirth
Ciber Labs: the Huntsville, Alabama branch of an ITA that was supposed to, but didn't, test Diebold GEMS central tabulator software for penetration, according to Bev Harris
computer voting system: a blurry, general category that, in the public eye, includes paperless touchscreen systems, as well as any system where voting results are tabulated by computer at a centralized location, which of course includes almost the entire U.S. voting process; much clarification needs to be done between computer knowledgeable people and their less-informed counterparts across the nation, to inform ourselves more clearly on what is being sent by what segments of the Internet; the primary necessity is to create a U.S. system where a recount can occur as accurately, precisely, and efficiently as it does in European and other democracies; only when a recount is feasible can the voting process be depended upon to be fair
data punch: "voters punch holes in the cards (with a supplied punch device) opposite their candidate or ballot issue choice. After voting, the voter may place the ballot in a ballot box, or the ballot may be fed into a computer vote-tabulating device at the precinct."
Diebold: second largest vendor of voting machines for the 2004 Election; owner, Mr. O'Dell, said publicly that he will help to get Ohio's votes to go for Bush; the company has given nearly $200,000 to the Republican party
DRE: a ballotless system known as "Direct Recording Electronic" voting system, also called "Touch Screen"
electronic voting machine: a term used non-specifically for (1) a DRE "touchscreen" voting machine, or (2) a centralized electronic vote-tallying computer that counts thousands of votes
electronic voting system: Ballotless voting system, also known as Direct Recording Electronic (DRE); used statewide in Georgia (Diebold), and nearly-so in Kentucky, Tennessee, Nevada, New Mexico, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey; used extensively in several other states (see map, above)
ES&S: Election Systems and Software, one of the biggest manufacturers of computerized voting systems; 56% of US votes in November 2, 2004's General Election were cast on ES&S machines; formerly named American Information Systems, Inc.
exit poll: a survey taken after voters have voted and exited the polling place, by asking voters who they voted for; this gives a very close approximation of how the real vote is going; historically, exit polls in the U.S. have been very accurate, differing from final tabulations, at the most, by 1/10th of 1 percent.
FEC: Federal Election Commission; in 1984 they produced Voting System Standards: A Report on the Feasibility of Developing Voluntary Standards for Voting Equipment
GEMS: Global Election Management System, the Windows-based software at the heart of the Diebold voting machines
HAVA: Help America Vote Act, a Federal act brought about as a result of the 2000 General Election debacle; it is to be implemented in 2006, giving almost 3 billion dollars to elections operations for procurement of electronic voting machines; the results of HAVA will be to compel small counties which currently use, and are happy with, paper ballots, to switch to grossly-more-expensive electronic voting machines
IEEE: "The IEEE and its predecessors, the AIEE (American Institute of Electrical Engineers) and the IRE (Institute of Radio Engineers), date to 1884."
ITA: Independent Testing Authority, the categorical name for companies hired by NASED to test the computer-driven voting systems now in use in the U.S.
lever machines: Ballotless voting system operated by pulling a lever to add one's vote to a tally; a series of levers and resulting tallies operate like odometers, moving up 1/10th of a rotation with each vote; now used in New York, Virginia and Louisiana primarily; these machines are no longer made
Mark-sense or Marksense: Voting system where dark marks are made on a paper ballot, then scanned by various types of machinery; also known as "Optical Scan" or OS, as opposed to the earlier (pre-1960's) electronic sensing systems that read the conductivity of pencil marks; optical systems read the shade (lightness/darkness) of the mark, not its electrical properties
NASED: National Association of State Election Directors, with the Secretariat of this group being in Texas; they are supposed to certify that your election voting system is "safe" and free from tamperability (Note: their new website has only one contact person, whose city and state are not given; see Bev Harris's website , p. 5, for a list of NASED officials; the Secretariat is/was R. Doug Lewis in Houston, TX electioncent@pdq.net)
optical scan:, a voting system where ballots are marked by the voter, then put through a scanning machine that reads the marks; the most widely-used type of US voting system; also known as "Marksense" (see above) OS: Optical Scan (see above)
paper ballots: forms printed on paper, listing candidates names, and election choices, and including places to mark one's choice; known as Australian ballots, because the system was perfected there first; are filled out in privacy, then publicly put into a sealed ballot box; counted by hand; undoubtedly the best, some say the only, system for insuring accurate counting of ballots; not to be confused with paper trail; not to be confused with optical scan or punch-card ballots, which are also paper, but which are not hand counted
paper trail: nebulous term meaning any type of paper documents created by voters, including optical scan and punch card ballots; the idea is that if voters cast paper ballots or generated paper receipts of some kind, these can always be recounted, thus keeping the election honest. However, the US recount process itself is not trustworthy due to many opportunities for fraudulent practices
PBHC: Paper Ballot Hand Counted, the voting system in the U.S. where voters mark ballots that have the information printed right on the ballot itself; also called the Australian Ballot , as it was first perfected in that country (in 1856!); these ballots are counted by hand right in the voting precinct, without being removed from the building until a well-witnessed total is achieved and publicly posted; precincts then telephone their totals to the county HQ; the counties then telephone their totals to the State; this is the least expensive while at the same time being the most fraud-proof method of casting and tallying ballots, and is the method used by the vast majority of democratic governments the in the world; see Lynn Landis for a strong voice for returning to paper ballots in the U.S.
polling place: or "polls," the place where people go to vote; the voting place; in the US, these are often in schools and other official, easily-accessible locations;not to be confused with the other meaning, i.e., surveys taken, asking a series of people the same questions
polls: (1) surveys taken by asking people certain choices, for the purpose of finding out the generally-held views of a group of people; (2) the place where people go to vote; the voting place; in the US, these are often in schools and other official, easily-accessible locations; usually there is one polling place per precinct
poll tapes: the record that contains the original voters' signatures; these are compared to the actual number of ballots cast in that precinct; if the number of signatures matches the number of ballots, the precinct is said to be "balanced" (q.v.)
precinct: the local voting region; in the U.S. there are several precincts in each county; people living in one precinct will all vote at that precinct's polling place; votes can be counted in the precincts, with those totals being given to the county office; or the voted ballots can be delivered to the central county location where all votes are counted together; the county election officials then report to the Secretary of State of their state; with the mass switch to electronic voting machines in the U.S., precincts become disused, and in one state (Florida) they have been all but obliterated
projected totals: the numbers of votes accumulated through exit polls, which figures are used to create media projections of how the final count will turn out (see Exit Polls)
public commons: the rightful gathering places of the public; the entire vote-counting process is supposed to take place here, in full view of members of the public, and never be hidden from public view, as it is today with computerized counting machines of all kinds, which system is causing increasing secrecy of the vote-counting process away from public accessibility
RAS: Remote Access Server, a type of phone-number-accessed server, run on Windows, which is very easy for computer folks to enter; the centralized vote counting programs used in the November 2 Presidential Election were linked through RAS systems, meaning that anyone, anywhere in the world, could get in, change vote counts, and leave without much of a trace, according to Bev Harris
Secretary of State: An office at both the Federal and State levels; at State level, this is an elected position, but quizzically, this official's responsibility is to oversee all major elections
server: a computer that "serves" to link many computers together, forming the "Internet"; a server is any normal small computer, like yours or mine, that has "server software" operating on it; the huge net of servers forms the Internet; you can "see" the Internet connecting you to a distant website --- go to Start, Run, type in cmd, hit OK, then in the black window, type tracert, then a space, then the domain name of the website you want to see the path to (e.g., www.craigslist.org); hit "Enter"
tabulation: the county-level activity of counting all the votes in the county; this counting is done, in most cases in the US, by a normal-looking computer that has special tabulation software installed; each county has one, or sometimes two, such computers functioning on Election Day and for some time thereafter; each computer can process up to 2,000,000 votes at a time; often, today's voting machines are connected via the Internet, directly to the tabulation computer
touch-screen, or touchscreen: a ballotless voting system where the voter touches the computer screen to select his/her choice; a type of DRE, or direct recording electronic, system; also generically known as a voting machine, though this is a non-specific term
voting machine: general term denoting either (1) an apparatus used to vote with; or (2) a centralized vote-counting machine that can tabulate tens of thousands of votes; see electronic voting machine
Voting Systems Panel (VSP): group at State level, California, 2003, to inquire into the nature of current voting systems
Votomatic: punch card voting system that has nothing except numbers printed on the ballot cards; one punches the card at the numbers that correspond to the choices on a separate display

  

Counting Votes Electronic voting  machines touch screen optical scan paper ballot punch card election fraud recount centralized central tabulating Get your Car or Truck...UNSTUCK!
With
Lions Grip
Traction Pads
tm